Forecast of the Mount Pinatubo eruption
Predicción de la erupción del Pinatubo
- Date
- 1991 · confidence high
- Place
- Mount Pinatubo, Zambales, Philippines
- Credited to
- PHIVOLCS (Raymundo Punongbayan) and the USGS Volcano Disaster Assistance Program
- Field
- Cosmos & Earth
What was discovered
Filipino and American volcanologists installed seismometers, measured sulphur dioxide and defined alert levels in the weeks before 15 June 1991. The evacuation of tens of thousands of people saved thousands of lives in one of the largest eruptions of the 20th century.
Credit for the forecast is shared between the Philippine authorities and the USGS; Typhoon Yunya coincided with the eruption and aggravated the damage.
What it led to
- a model of volcanic forecasting with tiered alert levels
- the aerosol cloud cooled Earth by about 0.5 °C in 1992-1993
- creation of mobile volcano response teams (VDAP)